I have struggled to answer some basic contradictions in our economy. On the one hand, we have printed, spent, and…

# Technical Blog

# Bernoulli’s Prisoner’s Dilemma: A Goals-Based Perspective

In 1738, the Swiss mathematician and physicist Daniel Bernoulli proposed a simple thought experiment: “A rich prisoner who possesses two thousand ducats but…

# A Goals-Based View of Security Prices and Market Dynamics: WHAT IF THERE IS NO “CORRECT” MARKET PRICE?

I have been thinking lately about how a market of goals-based investors might interact. As it turns out, the resulting…

# Five Factors Across the Business Cycle

Probably the most popular models in modern investment management are factor models. Growing out of the Capital Asset Pricing Model…

# On Horses, Tractors, and Markets

Growing up on a cattle ranch in central Texas, I developed a certain respect for the tools of the trade.…

# Recession Forecasting with a Neural Net in R

I spend quite a bit of time at work trying to understand where we are in the business cycle. That…

# How to Optimize a Goal-Based Portfolio

Traditional portfolio optimization (often called modern portfolio theory, or mean-variance optimization) balances expected portfolio return with expected portfolio variance. You…

# Why You Should Be a Goals-Based Investor

Imagine for a moment that you owe a violent loan shark $10,000 by tomorrow morning. But today you have only…

# How Much Can You Lose Before You’ve Lost Too Much?

I started my career in finance in 2007. For about a year I thought “this is great!” Then 2008 hit…

# Labor Force Growth by Decade – R Code

I just posted an interesting look at the growth of the labor force by decade. Given that I used R…

# Optimizing a portfolio in R – Monte Carlo method

I regularly use monte carlo engines to answer questions. First, they are really flexible in their ability to model non-normal…