I have struggled to answer some basic contradictions in our economy. On the one hand, we have printed, spent, and…
Technical Blog
The Return Distribution of Bitcoin
A look at daily and monthly bitcoin return distributions. Which distribution best describes the observed data. And, what does this mean from a portfolio management perspective?
Wealth Management in the Algocen Era: A Speculative Future
What does investing look like in 2038?
Bernoulli’s Prisoner’s Dilemma: A Goals-Based Perspective
In 1738, the Swiss mathematician and physicist Daniel Bernoulli proposed a simple thought experiment: “A rich prisoner who possesses two thousand ducats but…
A Goals-Based View of Security Prices and Market Dynamics: WHAT IF THERE IS NO “CORRECT” MARKET PRICE?
I have been thinking lately about how a market of goals-based investors might interact. As it turns out, the resulting…
Five Factors Across the Business Cycle
Probably the most popular models in modern investment management are factor models. Growing out of the Capital Asset Pricing Model…
On Horses, Tractors, and Markets
Growing up on a cattle ranch in central Texas, I developed a certain respect for the tools of the trade.…
Recession Forecasting with a Neural Net in R
I spend quite a bit of time at work trying to understand where we are in the business cycle. That…
How to Optimize a Goal-Based Portfolio
Traditional portfolio optimization (often called modern portfolio theory, or mean-variance optimization) balances expected portfolio return with expected portfolio variance. You…
Why You Should Be a Goals-Based Investor
Imagine for a moment that you owe a violent loan shark $10,000 by tomorrow morning. But today you have only…
How Much Can You Lose Before You’ve Lost Too Much?
I started my career in finance in 2007. For about a year I thought “this is great!” Then 2008 hit…
Franklin J. Parker, CFA 