I have struggled to answer some basic contradictions in our economy. On the one hand, we have printed, spent, and…
Technical Blog
Allocating Wealth Through Time – A Goals-Based Method
Goals-based portfolio optimization across multiple periods.
Allocating Wealth Both Across Goals and Across Investments
How to optimize wealth across your goals, as well as to investment portfolios within each of your goals. Supplement to Chapter 3 of my book, Goals-Based Portfolio Theory.
What Does the P/E Ratio Tell You About Investor Expectations?
Price to earnings ratios are readily observable, but what can they tell us about a market or security?
The Return Distribution of Bitcoin
A look at daily and monthly bitcoin return distributions. Which distribution best describes the observed data. And, what does this mean from a portfolio management perspective?
Wealth Management in the Algocen Era: A Speculative Future
What does investing look like in 2038?
Bernoulli’s Prisoner’s Dilemma: A Goals-Based Perspective
In 1738, the Swiss mathematician and physicist Daniel Bernoulli proposed a simple thought experiment: “A rich prisoner who possesses two thousand ducats but…
A Goals-Based View of Security Prices and Market Dynamics: WHAT IF THERE IS NO “CORRECT” MARKET PRICE?
I have been thinking lately about how a market of goals-based investors might interact. As it turns out, the resulting…
Five Factors Across the Business Cycle
Probably the most popular models in modern investment management are factor models. Growing out of the Capital Asset Pricing Model…
On Horses, Tractors, and Markets
Growing up on a cattle ranch in central Texas, I developed a certain respect for the tools of the trade.…
Recession Forecasting with a Neural Net in R
I spend quite a bit of time at work trying to understand where we are in the business cycle. That…
Franklin J. Parker, CFA 